Expert says Paladino victory should raise a red flag for NYS Democrats

BUFFALLO, N.Y. -- University at Buffalo political scientist James Campbell, a veteran political forecaster, says "The frustration of conservatives and the power of the Tea Party movement was demonstrated once again in the victory of Carl Paladino over the GOP's establishment-backed candidate Rick Lazio."

Campbell is available today at 1 p.m. for a press briefing in his office and for phone interviews. Please call Patricia Donovan at 716-645-4602 to arrange an interview.

Campbell points out that pollsters have consistently underestimated the enthusiasm and turnout rates of Tea Party supporters and other conservatives this year.

"The Paladino-Lazio race was interesting because of the victory of the outsider Paladino in an unanticipated landslide, although the last pre-election polls had the race as a toss-up," says Campbell, professor and chair of UB's Department of Political Science.

Campbell says Paladino faces another uphill battle against his Democratic rival Andrew Cuomo because of the large registration advantage for Democrats in New York.

"That said, the political winds of 2010 strongly favor conservative Republicans," Campbell says, "and Paladino is nothing if not a feisty and combative candidate. I would rate the race as leaning to Cuomo, but certainly not one that could be taken for granted by Democrats."

The University at Buffalo is a premier research-intensive public university, a flagship institution in the State University of New York system and its largest and most comprehensive campus. UB's more than 28,000 students pursue their academic interests through more than 300 undergraduate, graduate and professional degree programs. Founded in 1846, the University at Buffalo is a member of the Association of American Universities.