UB Geologist Studies How to Manage Precious Water Amid Volatile Middle-East Politics

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Middle East oil may have center stage right now, but because many scientists and policymakers fear that water will be at the center of future regional disputes, a University at Buffalo professor is studying the environmental impact of the region's hydrology resources and projects.

"Water is the next big commodity, not oil," said Mohamed Sultan, Ph.D., professor of geology in the Department of Geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences. "Major disputes in the future will not be about borders or oil, but water and they will arise between countries in the arid and semi-arid parts of the world."

Sultan's perspective on the topic comes from his interdisciplinary research, which combines geology, hydrology, remote sensing and geochemical and ecological analysis to determine how dramatic changes in land use in arid Middle Eastern countries from desert to agricultural use are affecting freshwater and groundwater systems.

He noted that the backdrop against which such research is conducted is fraught with political conflict, for example:

o In September 2002, Lebanon and Israel, which both draw water from the Jordan River basin, might have entered into an armed conflict over water rights if the U.S. had not stepped in to resolve the dispute

o Both Israel and the Palestinian territories in the West Bank and Gaza Strip pump water from what Sultan called "a dangerously depleted reservoir," a situation that he said potentially could trigger another dispute between the two

o Egypt, Sudan, Libya and Chad all draw non-renewable water from the huge Nubian aquifer, where hardly any rains fall, as the climate becomes more arid. Questions about which country gets how much are potentially problematic, Sultan noted, given the fact that this resource cannot be replenished.

Resolving these and other water issues in the region will require a sound scientific foundation, he said.

"As scientists, I see our role as potential diffusers of these conflicts," he said. "If we find cost-effective and environmentally friendly ways to better manage the scarce water resources in these areas, we will resolve potential sources of conflict. That can be done only if sound scientific principles and approaches are adopted."

Sultan, who was born in Egypt, leads the only international team with permission from that country's government to study and assess the environmental impacts of its major water management projects, such as how the $3 billion Tushka Canal will affect groundwater in Egypt and neighboring nations. His work is funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Science Foundation. His research partners are the Egyptian Geological Survey and Cairo University.

"As you develop agriculture, changing desert to tillable land, you are provoking hydrological changes," said Sultan. "The world needs to understand these changes in order to better assess any potential conflicts that arise over water resources impacted by these projects and shared by neighboring countries."

For example, he said, while the Tushka Canal is nearly up and running in southwestern Egypt, his team's research has shown that billions of dollars worth of future water-management projects could be saved if nature is left to take its course.

Sultan explained that despite the enormous cost and the lack of international funding, Egypt embarked on construction of the Tushka Canal to reclaim desert land in southwestern Egypt by pumping water from Lake Nasser, one of the world's largest manmade lakes.

Lake Nasser was created in the 1960s when the Aswan High Dam was built in order to tame floods from the River Nile and to meet Egypt's demand for electricity.

Because of a lack of funds, the second and third stages of the Tushka Canal project have been put on hold.

According to Sultan, that's a good thing.

In essence, he said, the Tushka Canal will take water from Lake Nasser and pump it up a cliff to cultivate about half a million acres that were formerly part of the Sahara Desert.

Under the Egyptian government's plan, stages two and three, which would involve additional pumping stations and irrigation canals designed to channel more water from the lake to cultivate additional lands west of Lake Nasser, would cost an additional $6 billion.

"It takes an enormous amount of energy to pump the water uphill as it were," said Sultan. "Our alternative accomplishes the same goals -- cultivating the same area -- but lets nature do it instead, without big, energy-consuming pumping stations."

Sultan's research paper on the subject, published last May in the Journal of Hydrology, is the only peer-reviewed scientific study that examines the hydrologic impacts of Lake Nasser and adjacent irrigation projects.

Under Sultan's "second River Nile" plan, which focuses on the lowlands west of Lake Nasser, the Egyptian government could develop far more tillable land than the projected 500,000 acres at greatly reduced cost and with far less environmental impact.

"Our computer models and calculations show that since much less water is leaking out of Lake Nasser today, lake levels are on the rise, and water now is available to encroach onto lands where it previously couldn't," he explained.

That's because as time progresses, the bottom of an artificial lake becomes more sealed.

Based on what Sultan and his colleagues know about the hydrology of artificial lakes, and the detailed understanding of the area's landscape extracted from satellite images, this process will continue, essentially creating spillways for the water from Lake Nasser to follow, running from depression to depression across portions of the Sahara Desert.

It took 40 years for this process to create five major new lakes to the west of Lake Nasser, said Sultan. These lakes are extensive, he added, covering an area approximately one-fifth the size of the massive Lake Nasser.

"That flow is so significant that, given time, it could potentially create a second River Nile, running west and parallel to the Nile Valley," he said.

Sultan noted that if waters from Lake Nasser follow this trend, they could eventually travel all the way to the Mediterranean Sea, a course that would take an additional 800 kilometers.

"That will take some time," he acknowledged, "but perhaps we can give nature a helping hand."

Sultan and his colleagues are working on developing realistic models to simulate this process.

With regard to the Tushka projects, he noted that $10 billion projects are not easily borne by the Egyptian economy.

"Why spend billions engineering the land so that it's tillable when nature will do it for you practically for free?" he asked. "Nature is on our side."