Growth cited as factor in quake devastation
MCEER report finds rapid development in Turkey led to unregulated construction

By DONALD GORALSKI
Reporter Contributor

Rapid population growth and resulting development in Turkey's Kocaeli province were the main factors in the large-scale devastation and loss of life in last year's earthquake, according to a report by the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER).

The finding underscores the influence of societal factors on the implementation of effective earthquake-engineering and construction principles.

The Aug. 17 earthquake killed more than 17,000 people and injured almost 44,000. It damaged 214,000 residential units and 30,500 business units, displacing more than 250,000 people, according to official Turkish government estimates.

Estimates of property losses range from $3 to $6.5 billion, the equivalent of 1.5 to 3.3 percent of Turkey's Gross National Product.

Population in the earthquake region grew by 26 percent from 1990-97, resulting in an upsurge in construction and unregulated building, says the report.

"Rapid development in the Marmara region overwhelmed the government's ability to monitor construction and led to unregulated building, resulting in inadequate lateral-force systems in buildings," says Charles Scawthorn of EQE International, Inc., the report's editor. This, he says, occurred in spite of Turkey's "very modern" building code, which contains requirements for earthquake-resistive construction.

The 190-page report, titled "The Marmara, Turkey Earthquake of August 17, 1999: Reconnaissance Report," details findings from field investigations by several MCEER researchers following the magnitude 7.4 earthquake. It represents an interim earthquake-engineering assessment of the natural, built and social environments following the earthquake.

It contains observations on the earthquake and its impact, including the seismology of the region; geotechnical failures; damage to industrial, commercial and residential structures; damage to electrical, gas, water and transportation systems; emergency-response and search-and-rescue operations, and post-earthquake restoration efforts.

It also features a section titled "The Marmara Earthquake: A View from Space," detailing high-level reconnaissance investigations exploring the use of such advanced technologies as satellite imagery, differential global positioning systems and in-field GPS-GIS interfaces for post-earthquake damage assessment and disaster management.