U.S. Military Hopes for a 15-Day War

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Claude E. Welch, UB professor of political science, is available to discuss the potential success of U.S. military strategy in a war with Iraq. U.S. military action in Iraq likely will begin with a massive bombing campaign to "decapitate" Saddam's government, followed by use of ground troops, Welch says.

"If there's going to be war, it better be short war," adds Welch, former editor of the journal, Armed Forces and Society. "The longer it drags on, the more the Arab world will become inflamed (at the U.S.). "I think the Pentagon has told Bush that the war can be won within 15 days. I think that's what they're banking on. Anything that goes beyond 15 days, I think the U.S. will have a hell of a time."

Welch warns that although the Iraqi army was depleted by the 1991 Gulf War, the experience of having fought the U.S. once before may make the Iraqis hard to defeat.

"I think the Iraqi's will retreat into an urban environment and try to lure the U.S. in, Welch says. "There could be a lot of civilian casualties, which would inflame the Arab world even more."