UB Management Dean Offers Tips To Survive Y2K

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- As the millennium nears, the hype surrounding Y2K -- or the Year 2000 -- seems to have died down.

But Lewis Mandell, dean of the University at Buffalo School of Management, says it may be that we're already in the eye of the Y2K storm, and the damage won't be apparent until the arrival of the new year has blown over.

Mandell says that most of the hype could be considered self-fulfilling prophecy.

"If enough people think something will happen, it will," he says.

But many of the concerns of Y2K are actual problems, Mandell says.

Surprisingly, the most Y2K-prepared country in North America isn't the United States. It's Mexico, he notes.

Why is Mexico in better shape than the United States?

"Mexico is a country where not as much of the infrastructure has been automated," he says.

While Mexico is expected to handle the coming of the new millennium fairly well, other countries are in worse shape. And one in particular -- Russia -- is expected to see its worst Y2K fears realized, he notes.

"Russia is assumed to be going black and staying black for a long time" after the first of the year, he predicts.

As for the United States, transportation systems are one of the major Y2K bugs the country faces heading into the millennium, Mandell says.

"Several airlines have canceled flights that would be airborne on New Year's Eve," he says, noting that the fear is that tracking systems -- radar in particular -- may break down or simply quit, leaving pilots in the precarious position of landing planes without ground control.

Moreover, the United States, Mandell says, also is "deemed insufficient in water and electricity" preparedness.

"We know for a fact that our utility companies are not digging up every relay point," he points out. "They're going to wait to see what fails."

So Mandell suggests that families stock up on flashlights, batteries and plenty of bottled water as a precaution.

As for other domestic amenities, Mandell warns that the end of December is not the time to take them for granted.

"You better think about getting gas well before New Year's," he advises. As for cash, it may be in higher demand than ever as the new year nears.

"Everyone is expected to get cash," he says. "ATMs (may not) work or will be out of cash. And stores may not be taking plastic (credit cards) for a while."

Perhaps even more serious than a potential cash shortage is the vulnerability of the securities market.

Mutual fund liquidity, Mandell says, is deemed to be the most serious domestic problem for Y2K.

"What happens if they lack the cash to meet liquidity demands?" he asks. "There are factors that are going to cause all mutual funds to experience withdrawal."

He also warns that in a market that he says is driven more by psychology than fundamentals, a slump after Jan. 1 should be expected.

Also important to consider is the capacity of home computers to handle Y2K, he adds. Advice is available at UB's Y2K Web site at http://wings.buffalo.edu/year2000/.

As for what's really going to happen, no one can be sure. But Mandell, like many others, is hoping for the best.

"Hopefully, we'll all weather this and you can forget what I said in a month and a half," he says.