Disasters like Katrina Defy "Adequate" Response

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Emergency managers and first responders must work under very high stakes, limited resources and events that unfold in unexpected directions.   Disasters like this one result from a chain reaction involving rare and largely unpredictable events.  Those reporting and commenting on the response to the Hurricane Katrina and its effects should remember this and be wary of  the "hindsight bias" rampant after 9/11, cautions University at Buffalo professor Ernest Sternberg, Ph.D., whose current research involves the study of the ethics of complex decision-making in averting terrorist, natural or technological disasters.

 "This particular situation evolved from the terrifying confluence of a super hurricane, bad settlement patterns and upstream development," says Sternberg, professor of urban and regional planning, School of Architecture and Planning.  "Americans are used to localized disasters to which public institutions can adequately respond, but New Orleans reminds us that we are also susceptible to catastrophes in which the ability to respond is itself severely damaged. 

A principle feature of the New Orleans tragedy could have been anticipated, however, Sternberg points out. "Disasters discriminate against those who have bad housing, no private vehicles and nowhere to go. This also was true of Hurricane Andrew, the Northridge Earthquake, and the Mississippi floods of the '90s.

"As we can see, they also discriminate against the handicapped, elderly and sick.  We have not yet heard what went on in hospitals and nursing homes as the waters approached, but be assured that there are terrible stories yet to emerge from this tragedy."

Sternberg says the federal government will have to take even more seriously the possibility of catastrophic natural disaster.  "Hurricanes have dominated our disaster news of late, but the U.S. is susceptible to a mid-continental earthquake, malicious attack with explosives , biological weapons, and new infectious diseases.

"The Department of Homeland Security will have to recommit to its combined mission of fighting natural and technological disaster as well as terrorism."  

Ernest Sternberg, Ph.D.
Professor of Urban and Regional Planning
University at Buffalo
School of Architecture
716-829-2133, ext.224
ezs@buffalo.edu