Iceland’s Fagradalsfjall is erupting. This UB expert helps predict where lava may go

BUFFALO, N.Y. — The eruption of Fagradalsfjall on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula, with lava emerging from multiple fissures, has captivated people around the world since March.

As molten rock continues to pour out, lighting up the landscape with its fiery glow, a University at Buffalo researcher is helping officials in Iceland predict where the lava may go next.

Mattia de’ Michieli Vitturi, PhD, assistant professor of volcanology in the Department of Geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences, is a mathematician who uses computational fluid dynamics to study natural phenomena ranging from tsunamis to volcanic events.

He is working with partners in the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the University of Iceland and the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) in Italy to use a model he developed to map potential future patterns of lava flow. The model considers factors such as the region’s topography (how the ground slopes and rises), the shape and location of fissures and vents, and the volume of lava that’s surfacing.

“I’m collaborating with them as the eruption is changing almost daily,” de’ Michieli Vitturi said late last week. “The lava is exiting from multiple vents, so the last version of the model that I sent was a couple of hours ago, with a modification because they had some requests.”

​This cooperative research grew from a longstanding partnership between de’ Michieli Vitturi and Sara Barsotti, PhD, the volcanic hazards coordinator for the Icelandic Meteorological Office. The two had previously worked together on other projects in Europe, including at the INGV section in Pisa, Italy. It was at INGV, also, that de’ Michieli Vitturi created the lava flow model with his colleague Simone Tarquini, who is also collaborating on the effort at Fagradalsfjall​.

De’ Michieli Vitturi’s work in Iceland presented his UB students with a great opportunity this semester. In early April, Barsotti gave a virtual guest lecture in a course de’ Michieli Vitturi is teaching on geologic hazards. The talk focused on Iceland, describing the country’s geology and how the Icelandic Meteorological Office monitors events including the ongoing activity at Fagradalsfjall. Barsotti noted that the eruption — which was preceded by tens of thousands of earthquakes — could continue for weeks or months.

Though the immediate area surrounding the fissures that have opened up at Fagradalsfjall is largely uninhabited, de’ Michieli Vitturi says predicting how lava may flow remains important. The model could be useful in understanding how human-made barriers could be used to influence how the molten rock spreads.

“Even if the area where the eruption occurred is sparsely populated, with no major towns or villages in imminent danger, the main road connecting the capital Reykjavík and the international airport at Keflavík is only a few kilometers away. In addition, thousands of people are visiting the eruption site making the capability of anticipating the lava propagation an important element to evaluate the hazard in the area,” de’ Michieli Vitturi says.

In addition to de’ Michieli Vitturi, Barsotti and Tarquini, colleagues involved in the lava flow modeling efforts have included Melissa Anne Pfeffer, PhD, and Bergrún Arna Óladóttir, PhD, at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, and Gro Birkefeldt Møller Pedersen, PhD, at the University of Iceland.