One of the best election models predicts a Trump victory. Its creator doesn't believe it.

Published June 16, 2016 This content is archived.

An article on Vox interviews James Campbell, UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science, about a well-respected political science forecasting model that predicts Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election. “Presidential approval, quite understandably, is a weaker predictor when the incumbent is not running,” he said.

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11854512/trump-election-models-political-science