Talk of ‘wave election’ rises—but what is it?

An article in the Wall Street Journal about political prognosticators who are arguing over whether 2016 will bring a “wave election,” with Democrats hoping for significant gains in both houses of Congress in addition to winning the White House, interviews James Campbell, UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science, who said the term goes back to a 1960 article in Public Opinion Quarterly, which proposed a “surge and decline” model of electoral change, based on the observation that congressional pickups of the party that wins the presidency are often lost in the following midterm election.

Campbell also is quoted in an article in the Christian Science Monitor about Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who is one of six Republicans who un-endorsed Donald Trump, only to say later that they will still vote for him on Nov. 8. “The distinction between supporting and voting for a candidate is not a gimmick. There is a real difference,” he said. "Support implies a positive assessment. A vote is a choice. I suspect the overwhelming majority of Republicans disgusted by Trump are even more appalled by the prospect of a Clinton presidency. So declaring a distinction between their support and their votes is the right and honest thing for them to do."

Read more:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/talk-of-wave-election-risesbut-what-is-it-1477576589

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2016/1027/Republican-flip-flop-Rep.-Jason-Chaffetz-says-he-ll-vote-Trump-after-all