With election too close to call, faculty experts weigh in

With results from battleground states still being tallied, and the nation anxiously awaiting who will be elected president of the United States for the next four years, UB faculty experts on Wednesday offered their insight and opinions on what has been an election campaign unlike any other.

From swing states and botched polls to election law and what the eventual outcome means for American democracy, the professors — James Campbell, James Gardner, Jacob Neiheisel, Henry Louis Taylor Jr., and Kari Winter — dove into a multitude of topics during a video conference call with news reporters.

Campbell is a UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science, whose election forecasts are followed nationwide by pollsters and pundits. Unlike many polls that showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a comfortable lead over President Donald Trump, Campbell correctly predicted in September that the race between the two was too close to call.

“The big loser last night was the pollsters,” said Campbell, adding that House Republicans outperformed many forecasts as well.

He noted the important role of absentee and mail-in ballots, both of which were utilized more so than in previous elections due to the global pandemic.

“When I went to bed last night around 3 o’clock in the morning, it looked pretty clear to me that President Trump had won the election …,” he said, adding that when he awoke, Biden had picked up a handful of key swing states that tilted the contest back in the Democrat’s favor.

James A. Gardner, SUNY Distinguished Professor and Bridget and Thomas Black Professor of Law, is one of the nation’s leading election law scholars. He commented on the presidential election from a legal point of view and about its larger ramifications for American democracy.

“I think from both of those perspectives the outcome last night was the worst it could possibly be,” he said.

Regardless of the eventual outcome, Gardner said the results will likely be mired in litigation. He expects public distrust to fester and perhaps grow, especially with Trump repeatedly casting doubt on the validity of the election.

Henry Louis Taylor Jr. is director of the Center of Urban Studies and a professor of urban and regional planning. Preliminary results spotlight the political, social and racial divide that has been growing in the U.S., he said.

“This is a deeply, deeply divided country along ideological lines,” he said. “And I think that what we see is an America that is conservative, racist and reactionary. This is Donald Trump’s America.”

He criticized the Democratic Party for having “no vision that excites people,” noting that many voters turned out simply because of their dislike for Trump. He also said he was hopeful for the future, noting the election brought forward “millions of people” who “believe in racial and social justice, and authentic democracy.”

Jacob Neiheisel, associate professor of political science, echoed Campbell’s comments that forecasters missed the mark. He noted that pollsters’ ability to accurately make predictions hinges upon a broad public response to their questions, something didn’t happen this year or in 2016.

“Going forward, pollsters are going to have to grapple with the fact that non-response is not random and it’s something that is a factor that’s going to continue to plague the process,” he said.

Kari Winter is a professor of American studies who studies gender, race, class and American history. The fissures dividing the country have roots that date back to the American Revolution and the Constitutional Convention, she said.

“The problems that were not resolved then, and were not resolved in the Civil War, are still very much alive,” she said.

She criticized Republican leaders, saying they have led efforts to disenfranchise voters for the past 40 years, noting recent efforts involving mail-in ballots.

“This is a pandemic and the idea that we can’t safely have mail-in ballots is ludicrous. It is counterfactual,” she said.