Yes, political debates still matter, UB political scientist says

Debates between political candidates have spanned centuries. By design, these events are meant to give spectators clearer insight into the character and policies of individuals running for office.

But in contemporary times, with longer political campaigns that stretch into years, do debates matter? Are voters too entrenched in their predisposed beliefs to change their minds on a candidate?

Conor Dowling, professor of political science, argues that debates do indeed still matter. For evidence of that, he says, look at the June debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

With the electorate increasingly polarized and the results of recent presidential elections being very close, Dowling says debates can be an important part of the electoral process.

“Debates can help solidify, or reinforce, choices for folks who are already fairly to very certain which candidate they intend to support,” Dowling says. “This solidification in support could result, for some individuals, in a decision to donate funds or support a candidate in other ways leading up to Election Day.”

Dowling says that while a single debate performance is unlikely to move someone who is on the fence to support a specific candidate, a debate performance — or two — plus other factors, such as advertising and other news coverage, could move someone off the fence.

“A debate being held in early September, as it will be in 2024, is a good bit earlier than previous election cycles. Consequently, there is likely to be more undecided voters at that point in the election cycle than there is in late September or October,” he says. “This could result in larger, post-debate polling movement than we’ve seen in the past.

“Of course, early debates also mean more time after the debates for other campaign events to occur and for polls to shift again.”