Trump’s authenticity making him popular, UB political scientist says

Donald Trump is the chief nonpolitician among Republican presidential contenders and, so far, that has helped him gain popularity in the polls, says UB political scientist James Campbell.

“He is authentic,” says Campbell, a nationally known political forecaster and UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science. “Sometimes an authentic oddball but, nonetheless, authentic. In an era in which candidates seem so overly processed — when so many speak without saying anything — Trump is the real deal.

“He’s politically incorrect, disrespectful and odd, but he is authentic. Not exactly a breath of fresh air, but at least a breath of air.”

Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic candidate, is the opposite, Campbell says. She is slipping in popularity because she seems to be so programmed, appearing more like a robot than a leader, he says.

But Trump’s campaign style will come back to haunt him as the Republican nomination process moves forward, Campbell predicts.

Trump is “extremely unlikely to be the Republican nominee,” he adds, because the party establishment is convinced he doesn’t have the experience or temperament to be an effective candidate or an effective president.

“He says what he thinks and it seems as though he often does not think it through very carefully or thoroughly. I’m not sure he has thought ahead very far,” Campbell says. “If he were somehow able to secure the Republican nomination, he would have to unite the other candidates and Republican leaders whom he has been busy calling names and otherwise denigrating.”

Campbell says it is not out of the question that Trump may run as an independent candidate if he fails to earn the Republican nomination.

With the first Republican debate scheduled for today, the big question is how Trump will conduct himself, Campbell says.

“These debates ought to be about which conservative Republican is best able to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election, but Trump, to this point, has derailed that,” he says. “The million-dollar question is whether he will respect Reagan’s 11th commandment and not speak ill of other Republicans and whether other Republican hopefuls will do the same.”