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Inside the presidential ballot box
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“While New York State as a whole was a sure bet for the Democratic ticket, and therefore was hardly noticed on election day, Western New York actually mirrored the voting behaviors of many swing states and the nation as a whole.”
A detailed analysis of Western New York's voting patterns in the 2008 presidential election by the Regional Institute has found that the region's most populated areas—urban and suburban—voted for Barack Obama, although 85 percent of the region's municipalities voted for John McCain.
The region also voted more Democratic in 2008 compared to 2004, especially rural areas, while the region's rank of registered Republicans shrank.
The analysis is presented in the institute's latest policy brief, "Inside the Ballot Box."
"While New York State as a whole was a sure bet for the Democratic ticket, and therefore was hardly noticed on election day, Western New York actually mirrored the voting behaviors of many swing states and the nation as a whole," said Peter A. Lombardi, senior research associate at the institute and author of the brief. Lombardi added that about 53 percent of the region voted for Barack Obama, the same share he received nationwide, compared to 63 percent statewide.
In addition to validating presumed patterns, such as Republican-leaning rural areas and Democratic population centers, the brief also sheds light on nuances in voting behavior across the region.
For instance, the region voted significantly more Democratic in 2008 compared to 2004. In more than 80 percent of the region's communities, Democrats increased their margin of victory, cut into a Republican victory or overturned a Republican victory from the previous election. For instance, voters in the City of Batavia gave George Bush a 747-vote victory in 2004, while Obama won by two votes in 2008.
The 2008 election also prompted voters to shift party affiliations, with the region's rolls of independent and minor party voters growing by 1.4 percent and falling 1.2 percent for Republicans; the number of registered Democrats grew by 0.2 percent.
"These findings likely mirror national trends, including the surge in first-time young voters, re-engaged older voters and, of course, a generally bad year for Republicans," Lombardi said.
Although a detailed exit poll was not conducted for Western New York, the brief assessed demographic voting patterns by categorizing the region's towns and cities by several characteristics, including population density, poverty rates, education level and minority populations. Areas with high poverty rates, including urban and rural centers, gave Obama 68 percent of their vote. Notably, areas that saw a population increase were more likely to vote for McCain, while those that shrank voted for Obama.
"Inside the Ballot Box," is part of the institute's policy brief series that informs regional issues with timely, reliable data and analysis. Click here to access all policy briefs.
The release of the brief is accompanied by new election data posted on the institute's Regional Knowledge Network (RKN), an online clearinghouse of information on the Buffalo Niagara region. Visitors to the site will find data and maps on 2004 and 2008 election results and voter registration, turnout and party affiliation.
"The policy brief and Regional Knowledge Network serve as complementary information resources on the region's voting patterns and behaviors," said Lombardi, adding that visitors to RKN can access baseline data to conduct their own analyses or dynamically map this information.
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