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Incumbent’s record shapes
presidential race
With the 2012 presidential campaign in full swing, President Obama’s low approval rating and the struggling economy will be key indicators in the election outcome, according to UB political scientist James E. Campbell. In fact, Campbell says, a 45 percent approval rating is the magic number, defied only once in history, for an incumbent to retain the office.
“With an incumbent in the race, the presidential record over the last four years will really shape the election’s focus,” says Campbell UB Distinguished Professor and chair of the Department of Political Science. “The political climate looks favorable for the Republicans, but they have to be concerned about having a reasonable candidate that will allow voters to register their dissatisfaction with the incumbent’s record, particularly with respect to the economy.”
“President Obama has a high-30 to low-40 percent approval rating and historically only one incumbent presidential candidate—Harry Truman—has succeeded in retaking the office with an approval rating of below 45 percent,” Campbell says. “President Obama has plenty of time to bounce back and hit that important rating threshold, but it is still likely to be a close election.
“There are some key factors in this race. The economy is simply the overriding issue in the campaign. Americans historically have not accepted presidential excuses for a weak economy. This will be a definite problem for the president’s re-election campaign. Even if the economy shows signs of recovery at election time, the president carries the weight of poor economic performance over most of his term,” he says.
“Then we have the Republicans. The longer the Republican field stays crowded, the more it works to Mitt Romney’s advantage; however, there is still a great deal of ‘anyone but Romney’ sentiment out there,” Campbell notes. “He is still the front runner but has not put much distance between himself and the other candidates. The Republican race for a candidate could stay alive right until the time of the convention, but more likely will clarify based on how well Romney does in the southern states.
“The real driver in how effective the Republicans will be in the race will be in how well they prevent President Obama from going on the offensive,” Campbell adds. “For the Republicans, the campaign has to stay focused on the past record because if it becomes about the future, the president has a greater chance of success.”
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