Of course, David Gergen, past advisor to four presidents and current editor-at-large for U.S. News & World Report, reminded a large audience in the Mainstage Theatre at the Center for the Arts that George Bush was riding high at this point in the election four years ago as well. "Bush was high in the saddle, with an 81 percent approval rating," recalled Gergen, "and, a year later he suffered the worst shellacking of any incumbent president since William Howard Taft in 1912."

Handicapping the current field of GOP presidential contenders, Gergen concludes that most are handicapped. Kansas Sen. Bob Dole deserves the GOP nod by virtue of his long service to party and country, says Gergen, but many doubts persist about his electability. Indiana Senator Richard Lugar would make a fine president, but draws little enthusiasm, he adds. Texas Senator Phil Gramm is doomed by the television age because, Gergen explained, he "has a great face for radio." And, fellow TV commentator Pat Buchanan has true conservative credentials and the best campaign of any candidate, but "he scares the bejesus out of a lot of people. As another commentator put it, they are still translating his 1992 convention speech from its original German."

Enter Gulf War General Colin Powell? Gergen thinks not. "My gut just tells me he won't run." But, Gergen conceded, there is a lot to be said about military experience. "Say what you might about Shannon Faulkner," Gergen chided, "but she has more military experience than Gingrich, Buchanan and Clinton combined."

Regardless of the candidate, Gergen contends, there is a "nastiness" in politics that will continue to alienate the electorate, making it "difficult for anyone to govern" until its underlying causes are addressed. The causes, says Gergen, are economic polarization of rich and poor, the breakdown of the family unit and a loss of a sense of community.

Gergen says he has "worked for more Presidents than Billy Graham has prayed with-with about equal success." Gergen was speechwriter to President Richard Nixon, counselor to President Gerald Ford, communications director to President Ronald Reagan. As Editor-at-large for U.S. News & World Report and a commentator on PBS's MacNeil/Lehrer Newshour, Gergen had been out of government for nine years-permanently, he thought-when longtime friend Bill Clinton pressed him back into service as Counselor to the President between June, 1993 and December, 1994.

Gergen views each of the four presidents he served as possessing unique strengths. Nixon was very well-read and a "strategic thinker," according to Gergen. Ford was "the most decent man I've worked for," and gathered the strongest cabinet of any. Reagan was "the most natural leader," and Clinton is "clearly the most intelligent," with a mind that "processes information like a computer."

Gergen credits Ronald Reagan with doing many good things, from ending the Cold War to putting a lid on inflation, but calls the substantial tax cut, implemented by Reagan in 1981, "a mistake" for cutting too deeply, contributing to greatly increased deficits. When Clinton signed an unpopular tax increase early in his term, Gergen supported it as the "right thing to do." He explained, "Those of us still around public life from the Reagan era have some responsibility to clean up our mistakes."

Clinton's rocky start surprised Gergen, who attributes it to three significant mistakes made during the 11-week transition to the presidency. You see, Gergen explains, Clinton did not enter the 1992 presidential race expecting to win. "He expected to lose the nomination to a 'heavyweight' like Mario Cuomo," recalls Gergen, "who would then go on to lose to Bush. Then, Clinton would be well positioned for '96."

Also, Gergen called the leap to the Oval Office "a bigger leap than anyone expects." He believes the best preparation for the job of president is as governor of a large, complex state, like New York or California. "Being governor of a smaller, less complex state," says Gergen of Clinton, "was not good." During the transition, says Gergen, Clinton's first of three mistakes was that he was "haunted by Carter, who maintained his 'outsider' status and could not get his legislative program through Congress."

Another mistake was putting considerable effort into finding cabinet members, but spending "almost no time on putting together a White House staff." The result, explained Gergen, was a staff without any D.C. veterans, that was young and talented, but green. "Clinton would sometimes say that he felt, early in his presidency, like he was running a head start program."

Clinton's third transition mistake was the role Mrs. Clinton would play in the administration. "She had an instrumental role in Arkansas," explained Gergen, "but, unfortunately, the country was not ready for this." Each time Hillary Rodham Clinton asserted herself politically, it seemed to diminish President Clinton, Gergen claims. Men of Gergen's generation, he said, hoped that their daughters would grow to be like Mrs. Clinton, but were glad that their wives were not.

Though a lifelong Republican, Gergen seemed to paint Clinton as philosophically closer to Ronald Reagan than Newt Gingrich is. Gergen credits the GOP for tackling politically sensitive issues such as entitlements, but sternly criticized the proposals they have put forward. "I don't believe this is socially responsible," said Gergen of the GOP welfare reform plan, "and I don't understand why this country is so quiet about this...It is unconscionable to me that we would continue to broaden the gap between rich and poor. This goes far beyond what Reagan would have done." Gergen also criticized GOP plans to gut the Earned Income Tax Credit, which his former boss Reagan called "our best anti-poverty program."

Gergen's unique vantage point on American politics has meant his words and advice have decorated the highs and the lows of the past 25 years. As chief speechwriter for Nixon, the task of penning Nixon's letter of resignation fell to Gergen. It was also Gergen who turned the phrase "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" Ronald Reagan's 1980 debate closer that closed the door on the Carter Presidency.

A native of Durham, North Carolina, Gergen attended Yale University and earned his law degree at Harvard. In addition to his dual roles at U.S. News and PBS, Gergen is now a visiting professor at the Terry Sanford Institute of Government at Duke University in his native state.