"It won't be business as usual," according to Senior Vice President Robert J. Wagner, who spoke before the Professional Staff Senate Nov. 15.

The reality, he said, is that SUNY will continue to see state budget cuts. The state's deficit, which has doubled over the last five years, could hit $2.7 billion next year and $3.9 billion the following year. "We're going to see the deficit having a great effect on support for the state university," Wagner said.

In 1995-96, SUNY received $732 million in tax revenue, slightly less than half its overall budget. It is likely that number will drop to $600 million in 1996-97, and to perhaps $500 million in 1997-98, he said. "Think of the impact when this goes to $600 million, perhaps to $500 million....There are states where state tax support is as low as 15 percent."

What is clear is that these budget reductions will lead to "dramatic changes" in how the university operates, and what its income and tuition will be. The university also will have to make decisions about how to retain and provide services to students in light of a projected system-wide budget drop of more than $100 million a year.

"It's not a very pretty picture, I'm afraid," Wagner said. If members of the university community take a this-will-pass attitude, "We're going to find ourselves in very deep trouble, since there are no 'big rabbits' to pull out of the hat," he said.

A tuition increase alone is not the answer to SUNY's overall budget shortfall. "If you wanted to fill, say a $150 million problem with tuition, you'd have to raise tuition $1,000," Wagner said. "I don't think politically that's going to go-in the legislature, with the governor and, frankly, I don't think it's going to go within the (SUNY) system."

Perhaps one-third to one-half of the budget deficit will be filled by raising tuition, "But other revenue and reductions will have to fill the rest of the gap," Wagner said.

Student enrollment is vital to UB's ability to deal with budget reductions. "We need to give enormous focus to enrollment management and our service to students," Wagner said.

Increased fees and charges also will be a fact of life as a result of the budget, he said. This year students faced $166 in new fees or fee increases in addition to a $750 tuition increase. "Students are concerned, as they should be; some are unhappy, as they should be," Wagner said.

People still consider UB's-and SUNY's-tuition to be a bargain, especially when compared to a private school such as Canisius College. "One of our advantages is price-an advantage that is rapidly diminishing," according to Wagner. As the difference between private and public tuition narrows, UB will have to rely on the quality of its academic programs and student life to attract and retain students, which will be a challenge as basic resources are going down.

External sources of funding, such as grants and contracts, will be vitally important to UB's fiscal future. "If the level of support for sponsored research went down, for example, we'd have to think about how to deal with a reduction in indirect cost recovery," Wagner said.

Likewise, UB's Development program is an institutional priority with the objective of significantly increasing gift giving to the university, both in terms of immediate gifts as well as bequests that will provide income to the university over the longer term.