"The transition from state supported to state assisted has gone better than expected, given the magnitude and rate. The State University has managed well," said Bartlett at a March 14 press conference at UB's Center for Tomorrow. But "the process has gone as far as it can go without changing (SUNY's) character."

The impact of the 1996-97 budget is expected to go beyond monetary effects, Bartlett said. Budget reductions raise the specter of another tuition increase, which, when combined with a proposed reduction in the Tuition Assistance Program (TAP), could prevent some students from enrolling.

"If we raise tuition, we can expect it to have an impact on access," Bartlett said. And raising tuition will not completely close the budget gap, possibly forcing the State University to deal with the deficit through a managed reduction of faculty and staff.

"Either way we deal with (the budget cut), it will have an impact on access and the mission of the State University," Bartlett said. "My concern is that in these circumstances people understand the choices that are going to be made."

Cuts to the SUNY and TAP budgets could "wring out of the system 10,000 to 15,000 students," Bartlett said. But students should apply to the State University system "without regard to the dangers to TAP and with the assumption that there will be restoration," he said.

"They lose very, very little if they apply and (TAP restoration) doesn't materialize. They lose a lot if they don't apply and TAP is restored," Bartlett said.

The 1995-96 tuition increase of $750 forced 8,500 students out of the system, Bartlett said. "That's a shot across the bow."

But when last year's increase is combined with the possibility of another increase this year as well as uncertainty about the financial fate of the State University system, "is it any wonder that the rate of applications has slowed down?" Bartlett said.

The actions we take in response to the budget will have an effect on people's lives, on where they attend college and whether they attend full time, part time or don't attend at all, the Chancellor said.

SUNY is committed to continuing to offer a strong, balanced academic program for part-time, full-time, returning professional and technical students-"the full range," Bartlett said. "Our core programs are not going to go away. We are not going to let them be weakened. We will get smaller before we let that happen."

Over the past eight years, state support for the SUNY system has been cut nearly in half. In 1988, state support accounted for 85 percent of SUNY's budget. Today, that number is in the 47-48 percent range, Bartlett said.

That's a 45 percent drop in money from 1988 to this year. We have managed by shifting the burden to students," Bartlett said.

But this year there is a sense of crisis, he added. "We've been coasting downhill and suddenly the weight of history has hit us."

New York is no longer a "low tuition" state, and raising tuition to offset budget reductions "is not a strategy that is open to us," Bartlett said.

Instead, hard decisions about SUNY's future will have to be made. "The magnitude (of the 1996-97 budget) is great enough that it can't be dealt with by devices or fiddling," he said. "Cutting the fat, being more efficient-those don't work any more."

Some of the proposed cost-saving solutions will require investment in technology as well as legislation that would enable SUNY to manage itself with fewer restraints. But the savings achieved that way would be small in the grand scheme, Bartlett said.

"So you have to talk about substance-cutting faculty, cutting staff, cutting students," he said. "It gets down to how many people there are. Eighty percent of our budget is people."

Fund-raising is going to be important in a way it never has before, the chancellor said. "The State University of New York is in the early stages of fund-raising. None of our campuses, including this one (UB), has matured in fundraising. The system raised $65 million last year. Any number of large public universities will raise that amount by themselves. At one time, SUNY institutions were not allowed to raise funds. Those days are gone."

Perhaps one of the greatest problems SUNY faces is the uncertainty, not over its own budget, but over when the federal budget will pass and what it will contain for New York State. "I can't remember a time when there's been such a sense of uncertainty about time," Bartlett said. Some state legislators want to pass a budget, albeit a tentative one, before the federal figures are known. Others want to wait until the federal budget is passed. "That's a real problem, to say the least," Bartlett said.

While the outlook appears gloomy, Bartlett said, there is a bright spot: "The atmosphere is better this year than last. Last year the feeling was, the state is in bad shape and the State University has got to take its licks. This year it's different. I don't know if it matters, if we'll get the management authority we need or the money. But there is the recognition that the State University has been hit pretty hard over the years....People are listening and not simply dismissing SUNY's needs."