Estimation of the Economic Impact of Multiple Lifeline Disruption: Memphis Light, Gas and Water Division Case Study

Keywords: New Madrid Seismic Zone, Central United States, Memphis, Tennessee, Shelby County, Tennessee, Secondary Losses, Economic Impact, Loss Estimation Methodology, Case Studies, Urban Areas, Seismic Risk Assessment, Economic Loss, Revenue Loss, Repair Costs, Public Utilities, Restoration Models, and Multiple Lifeline Disruption.

Abstract: This technical report focuses on the estimation of economic losses from urban lifeline disruption in seismic events. A methodological approach is developed and applied to estimating losses that would be incurred in Memphis/Shelby County, Tennessee in the event of a large hypothetical seismic event in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). Disruption to the natural gas, electric power and water lifeline systems is considered. Economic loss is evaluated for each of the three lifelines individually, as well as for the case of multiple lifeline disruption. The scope includes evaluation of four types of economic loss: lifeline facility repair costs, revenue losses to the utility provider, direct economic loss suffered by utility customers, and the consequent indirect economic loss in the region. This study focuses on the development of methods for estimating direct economic loss and pays particular attention to inter-industry and intra-regional differentials in impact. As part of a larger NCEER coordinated project on Urban Seismic Risk Assessment, it utilizes results from associated NCEER studies on hazard assessment, lifeline damage and outage estimation, business impact assessment, GIS/business location mapping, and indirect economic impact analysis.