Will Trump use airstrikes in the Middle East? His first term offers clues, UB foreign policy expert says

BUFFALO, N.Y. - How will U.S. foreign policy change during President-elect Donald Trump’s second term in the Oval Office? In particular, how will Trump use the U.S. military to achieve his policy goals?

Carla Martínez Machain, PhD, professor of political science at the University at Buffalo College of Arts of Sciences, is an expert on international conflict and U.S. military policy. She says Donald Trump’s past foreign policy actions can provide clues as to what to expect during the next four years.

Below, Martínez Machain discusses some possible scenarios for the incoming Trump administration.

Showing strength through airpower

“One particular way in which the Trump administration could use U.S. military power to achieve its goals would be through coercive air power. This is a tool which the U.S. has often used to influence other states in the international system. Aerial bombing can be an appealing choice for powerful democracies such as the U.S., as it is perceived as being lower-cost (both in terms of political as well as military costs) than ground interventions. Though it can signal low resolve from the states using it, it can be effective in achieving limited goals more quickly than other military options. It thus could be an attractive option for the Trump administration,” Martínez Machain says.

Trump’s previous targeted airstrikes in Syria

“In 2017 and 2018, the Trump administration bombed key military targets in Syria in response to the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war. The Assad regime has recently been overthrown by rebel forces. Most of the remaining chemical weapon sites have been destroyed by Israel’s preventive attacks on Syrian territory. The Biden administration also bombed Islamic State sites in Syria after the fall of Assad. This makes it highly unlikely that the Trump administration would feel motivated to attack Syria again, as it has become less of a potential threat to the U.S. and its allies,” Martínez Machain says.

Possibility of using airstrikes on other countries

“Of course, the possibility remains that the Trump administration would choose to use coercive air power against other states. In 2019, Trump considered using airstrikes against Iran after the Iranian military destroyed an unpiloted U.S. surveillance drone. In the end, he decided against it. That said, as the conflict in the Middle East continues, there is a possibility that the U.S. administration could use airstrikes in support of Israel against states such as Iran,” Martínez Machain says.

Airstrikes could be a dangerous response

“Even though airstrikes are less politically costly than a ground intervention, they carry the potential to escalate. This is especially true if they are used against a regional power such as Iran. In addition, airstrikes can also produce significant civilian casualties, and carry with them an increased risk of collateral, as compared to ground campaigns. We thus should also expect some degree of restraint in the Trump administration’s willingness to use force in the Middle East,” Martínez Machain says.